Expectations vs Reality: The Biggest Over- and Underperformers of the Cobbled Classics

​After one of the most memorable editions of Paris-Roubaix on Sunday, we can finally take a look at how this year’s cobbled classics have unfolded. We had a relatively boring Opening Weekend, but what followed was truly remarkable. All of E3, In Flanders Fields and Dwars door Vlaanderen came down to the wire.

The Ronde van Vlaanderen was won by the favorite, but it was still an open race for quite a long time. The surprise announcement by Evenepoel and Bora just before the race also added to the pre-race buzz. And then came the “Hell of the North”. It was a race that had everything we could’ve asked. From unexpected punctures and Van der Poel’s almost heroic comeback to the sprint in the Velodrom.

Speaking of the sprint, it was between Tadej Pogacar, who with a win would’ve cemented his name in the history books forever, and Wout van Aert, who had faced a lot of setbacks beforehand. In the end, it was the Belgian who raised his arms in the air, and let’s be honest, even the Pogacar’s biggest fans were happy seeing Wout finally get his well-deserved cobbled Monument.

However, next to the main storylines, there were some riders who overperformed, while a few others disappointed. So with that in mind, here are the biggest over- and underperformers of this year’s cobbled classics.

Overperformer: Tim van Dijke

As I’ve already mentioned, the Opening Weekend, especially Omloop was quite a straightforward race, with Mathieu van der Poel dropping everybody on the Kapelmuur and winning in a dominant fashion. However, for another Dutchman it was a day he would never forget. Tim van Dijke was the only one next to Florian Vermeersch who could follow MVDP’s attack on the famous Molenberg, and after a very smart ride he outsprinted the Belgian and finished 2nd.

It was by far the biggest result in his career, but many fans didn’t like his uncooperative behaviour, which meant that people were unsure whether he could replicate this performance in the upcoming races. It seemed like that the doubters were right, as in the following races his results were far from the one in Omloop. However, if you watched those races, then you know that he was heavily involved in all of them.

It is also worth mentioning, that Red Bull-Bora has another 4-5 riders who are at least on the same shelf in the team’s hierachy as Tim. The German team wanted to give a fair shot to everybody, so probably that was why Tim was used as a domestique for the rest of the classics season. But even in such a limited role, he still achieved another great result. Of course, I’m talking about his 11th place at the Tour of Flanders.

After UAE’s acceleration on the Molenberg, the group of favorites was very small, but Tim was still there. His job for the rest of the race was to help Evenepoel as much as he could, before Pogacar’s inevitable attack. I’m sure that without his incredible effort Remco would’ve had a much harder time against the Slovenian. And to almost finish in the Top10 after such an effort is also something that is not talked about enough.

When Bora signed him a couple of years ago, this was the rider they envisioned he would become. He is also only 26 years old, so he has plenty of time to get even better, which I’m sure he’ll do. So don’t be surprised if you see him on the top step of the podium in future seasons.

Overperformer: Per Strand Hagenes

Someone who’s even younger than Van Dijke, but has also had a breakout year is the 22 year old Norwegian, Per Strand Hagenes. Just like Tim, he’s came through the youth ranks of Visma, but unlike the Dutchman, he never left the “Yellow Bees”. And after the season he’s just had, it seems like he made the right decision.

As a former Junior World Champion, when he got his first pro contract in 2024, people had high expectations towards him. But he entered into a Visma team that was very deep in terms of the classics, with the likes of Van Baarle, Jorgenson, Benoot and Van Aert all riding for the Dutch outfit. This meant that in the first couple of years he was mostly used as a domestique, but he’s gained a lot of experience during this time, which has affected his development in a positive way.

And with the departure of Van Baarle-Benoot duo and Jorgenson setting his sight on the Ardennes, it was time for Hagenes to step up and prove his worth, which he definitely did. He was already very close to achieving success at the Ename Samyn Classic and at the Grand Prix de Denain. In the Belgian race he attacked 30km from the finish, however the sprinters’ teams reeled him in with 600m to go.

Meanwhile in France, he was also on the move, but that time he had Alec Segaert next to him. The two worked very well together for a long time, but on the final cobbled sectors the cat-and-mouse game started, with the Belgian coming out on top at the end. Even though these races were not the biggest ones, his performances were a sign of good things to come.

And he was able to impress us again, but this time it was at the “mini Tour of Flanders”, at the E3 Saxo Classic. Mathieu van der Poel went on a solo mission from 42km out, and for long time he looked uncatchable. However, a small group formed behind him including Stan Dewulf, Florian Vermeersch, Jonas Abrahamsen and Hagenes. These four riders worked very well together, and as a consequence they were right on the heel of the Dutchman when they were crossing the flamme rouge. But then came the cat-and-mouse game, and that was all MVDP needed and he was able to hang onto his lead. Behind him Hagenes won the group sprint, which was a huge result for the Norwegian.

In the remainder of the classics he played a crucial role as domestique. Overall, he improved a lot this year and showed that he is capable to go toe-to-toe with the best classics riders in the world. With a little bit of an improvement, I’m sure that he will get his maiden cobbled classics win. One thing is for sure, Visma have another great classics rider, who will be an important part of the team in the next years.

Underperformer: Dylan van Baarle

However, the rider, whose departure gave this freedom to Hagenes, had a very underwhelming season. Soudal Quick-Step decided to shift their focus back to the classics following Remco Evenepoel’s exit. Next to Laurenz Rex and Jasper Stuyven they also picked up former Paris-Roubaix winner Dylan van Baarle.

It seemed like a sensible move from both the team’s and Dylan’s perspective. The Wolfpack were in desperate need of a classics leader, meanwhile the Dutchman was becoming less and less important at Visma. It looked like a match made in heaven. For both sides, it was a new opportunity and a chance to return to glory together.

Unfortunately, Van Baarle got sick right before the Opening Weekend, which meant that he was not at his 100%. It was truly a shame, as he had showed some great form a week earlier at the Volta ao Algarve. But still, he had quite a few races left to prove that he was his old-self. But that breakout race never came. 36th at E3, 57th at the Dwars door Vlaanderen and a 30th place at the Ronde van Vlaanderen followed. These results would be disappointing for most of the riders, so for a rider of Dylan’s caliber they were terrible.

And unfortunately for him, it didn’t get better next week either at Roubaix, a race which he had won in the past. He finished in 82nd, and he was a non-factor during the entire race. What is even more concerning for him, that meanwhile the team’s other veteran recruit, Jasper Stuyven, has arguably had his best classics season ever, topped by a 3rd place in the “Hell of the North”.

So the problem is clearly not with the team’s approach, it has to do with something Van Baarle himself. So, the question is, can he recover from such a disappointing spring and come back stronger in 2027, or is it the end of his illustrious career. For now it looks to be the latter, but let’s hope that the Dutchman can figure things out.

Underperformer: Arnaud De Lie

Another leader who underachieved relative to the expectations was Lotto’s Arnaud De Lie. He was an incredible talent in the youth ranks regarded as a classics sprinter and that’s why the Belgian side eventually signed him, back when he was still only 20 years old. Already in his first year he performed at a very high level, almost saving the team from relegation. So after a neo-pro season like that, everybody expected him to lead the team to glory in the following years. In his second year he finished 2nd at Omloop after being arguably the strongest rider over the Muur, which showed that he was ready to be the team’s classics leader.

However, in 2024 disaster struck. After a underwhelming start to his spring campaign he got diagnosed with Lyme-disease, which ruled him out for most of the classics season. Unfortunately for him and Lotto, it didn’t get any better in 2025 either. This time he wasn’t sick, he was just simply not strong enough to compete with the best.

Something clearly went wrong in his preparation, so as a consequence questions have started to circulate on the Belgian’s future. But he remained loyal to his boyhood team and went into this season with some very ambitious goals. Interestingly, both in 2024 and 2025 he performed extremely well at the tail end of the season. He even beat MVDP last year at the Renewi Tour, which showed that the talent was clearly there, the question was whether he and Lotto could time it for the spring.

However, just like in the previous years, the Opening Weekend was a huge disappointment for him. He crashed in the leadup towards the Muur at Omloop, but he never really looked like someone who had the form to follow the big boys up it in the first place. On the following day this speculation became a reality, as he abandoned Kuurne.

So entering In Flanders Fields, no one really expected anything for him. And maybe that’s all he needed, as he sprinted to a 4th place finish, which was his best cobbled classics result since the 2nd place in Omloop 3 seasons ago. “Ah, what a relief. I’m happy with this fourth place,” sighed De Lie. He started in Middelkerke with some doubts, as he had barely been able to train after Denain. “Eight hours in a week and two days. I felt tired and didn’t really know what to expect today. I feel like I’m still missing a bit to be at my very best, but this is encouraging, especially after all the bad luck I’ve had in recent spring seasons and races.”

So after such an encouraging result, everybody expected him to carry this form into the “Holy Week”. But what followed was probably the most depressing thing that could’ve happened. Two DNFs at the Tour of Flanders and at Roubaix. He again showed that he cannot deliver consistently, at least not in the spring. Lotto has been trying to find the solution for 3 years now, but maybe a split would be better for both parties.

Rumors have already started to come up, discussing De Lie’s future, with reportedly Red Bull-Bora being the front runner in signing the Belgian. But one thing is clear, Lotto doesn’t know how to get the most out of De Lie, and with his contract expiring at the end of this year, a transfer is definitely on the cards for him.

Overperformer: Tobias Lund Andresen

Up next we have another versatile sprinter, but as oppose to De Lie, he surprised us in a positive way. When Decathlon signed him from Picnic at the end of the last season, most of us thought that he would mostly go to the harder races that could end in a bunch sprint. Nobody really saw him as the team’s leader in the spring classics, especially after the French side signed Olav Kooij too. The Dutchman was supposed to be the one of the team’s leaders during the cobbled classics, but unfortunately he got sick in the offseason, which he hasn’t recovered from since.

This left Decathlon without a true finisher. And this was where Tobias came into the picture. He showed great form in Australia at the start of the season, as he won a stage at the Tour Down Under and also won the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race, so it seemed logical to give him a shot at the Opening Weekend too.

However, he has never ridden the cobbled classics before, so nobody really knew what he could do on the cobbles. He won the E3 Saxo Classics and also finished 2nd at the Ronde van Vlaanderen when he was a junior, but that was back in 2019. Already on Saturday, in Omloop, he showed that the team can count on him, as he won the bunch sprint behind the attackers and finished in 6th. What was even more impressive though was his performance on the climbs. He looked very comfortable on the Muur, while on the Bosberg he straight up looked the strongest from the peloton.

After such a performance, a 7th place on the following day at Kuurne actually seemed like a disappointment. Following the Opening Weekend he rode the Tirreno-Adriatico, where he won a stage beating the likes of Milan and Philipsen. As a consequence he entered the next couple of classics (E3 Saxo Classic, and In Flanders Fields) as one of the favorites.

At E3 it was always going to be hard for him to win because of the parkour’s toughness, but he did the most he could do and finished in 6th place after he won the bunch sprint. On paper, In Flanders Fields suited a lot more to his skillset, so he was rightly labelled as the co-favorite next to Philipsen before the race. As expected, it was a close affair between the two, but unfortunately for the Dane, Philipsen was just able to beat him by a couple of centimeters.

But still, to have such a successful spring with little to no experience from beforehand is very encouraging for future seasons to come. I’m sure that when Decathlon signed him, they didn’t think that he would be this good this early. They got a bargain, and with the way Tobias has been riding so far, I wouldn’t be surprised if he turns these nice placings into wins already next season.

Underperformers: Jonathan Milan and Mathias Vacek

The next couple of riders have two vastly different profiles, but they ride for the same team and they also got an unexpected opportunity earlier this year. That opportunity came after the Mads Pedersen’s unfortunate crash, which left Lidl-Trek without a true number one rider for the classics.

So it was time for the others to step up and replace the Dane’s production. And if we took a look at the German team’s roster, there were two riders who could realistically step into Pedersen’s place while he was recovering from his injury. Those two riders were none other than Jonathan Milan and Mathias Vacek. Let’s look at the Italian’s season first.

He is definitely not as versatile as Pedersen, however he is arguably one of the best sprinters in the world. The question was whether he could survive the cobbled climbs before the finish. He had already finished 2nd at Gent-Wevelgem and 7th at Dwars door Vlaanderen, so the team expected him to do one better and win at least one of the classics. However, he was nowhere close to the front at any of the races he took part in.

107th at Kuurne followed by a 94th place at In Flanders Fields and a DNF at Dwars door Vlaanderen were very underwhelming from the Italian. But he had one last opportunity to redeem himself at the pinnacle of the classics, Paris-Roubaix. On paper, he is a rider who’s actually well suited to the challenges of the “Hell of the North”.

Pedersen has already came back, but his form was still a question mark, which meant that Milan would get all the freedom he needed. However, he got dropped right after the first few sectors and finished in a disappointing 64th place. After such an underwhelming spring campaign, it is hard to look at him as more than just a pure sprinter.

On the other hand, Vacek is a completely different rider, as he compares well to someone like Stybar, who was a more traditional classics rider. Just like Milan, he has already showed quite a lot of promise in previous years. For example, he was the first rider to cross the top of the Muur last year at Omloop and he also played a crucial role as a domestique in Mads Pedersen’s success.

So without the Dane in the team, he seemed like the perfect rider to be the team’s next leader. But just like Milan, he was uncompetitive in most of the races he participated in. His best result came last weekend at Paris-Roubaix, where he finished 22nd, far behind the best.

At 23 years old he still has a lot of time to improve and learn the ins-and-outs of being a team’s leader. However, Pedersen probably won’t be injured during every spring classic in the future, and with the Dane at the startline, it’s hard to imagine how Vacek will get to ride for his own result.

It is also worth remembering that Lidl-Trek have a multiple teenagers that are eager to replace the Dane when he decides to hang up his bicycle. Héctor Álvarez, Albert Philipsen and Jakon Soderqvist are just a few of the young talents the German team has on their roster. All in all, for both of them it seems like a huge missed opportunity, and one that they might never get in the future.

Underperformer: Fred Wright

Pinarello Q36.5 had quite a busy offseason when it comes to transfers, as they had signed 10 riders before the start of the 2026 season. From sprinters and climbers to classics riders, they got at least one of every type of rider. However, it was the classics where they invested the most, signing riders like Brent Van Moer, Xandro Meurisse, Aimé De Gendt and Quinten Hermans. All the 4 riders I just mentioned are great in their own right, but they are not born-leaders.

And that was where Fred Wright came into the picture. The Brit seemed like the perfect rider to lead a team such as Q36.5. He had been consistently performing at a good level at Bahrain in the previous years, even though he was never really the Middle Eastern team’s main leader, so entering the 2026 cobbled classics, people were expecting him to carry the Swiss team on his back.

However, he finished the spring without a single Top10 next to his name. He never finished inside the Top50 and only scored an abysmal 14 UCI points. Without Pidcock’s heroic performance in Sanremo, it would’ve been a nightmarish spring for the Swiss side. I’m sure that both Fred and his team are very disappointed with how his classics campaign has unfolded.

He still has 2 more years left on his contract, and at just only 26 years old I’m sure that he will bounce back. But will he ever be able to lead Pinarello at classics? Right now I would say no, which means that they might be back on the market looking for a new leader already this year. And if that happens, then Wright might just be a domestique again, which is definitely not why he’s chosen the Pro Continental team. One thing is for sure, he will have to do a lot in the rest of the season if he wants to stay the team’s leader next spring.

Overperformer: Aimé De Gendt

Luckily for Q36.5, they had a rider in their locker who made an unexpected step up. When they signed Aimé De Gendt from Cofidis, everybody thought that he would just be one of the many mediocre riders on their roster. He didn’t have any results to shout about prior to this year, however as a Flemish rider the cobbled classics carry a weight that goes beyond sport.

Hence why he changed his training methods in the offseason, hoping that he would see improvements. Working closely with the team’s coaching staff, the focus this winter shifted towards a more demanding balance of intensity and endurance, which is key to handling the repeated surges and positioning battles that define racing on cobbles. Structured training camps, an early start to the season and a targeted block ahead of Opening Weekend created a solid foundation, one that now allows him to compete consistently across a dense and demanding race schedule.

"We focused a bit more on intensity this winter, combined with endurance. I’m feeling good in the races, recovering well… the preparation was well considered" - said the Belgian in one of the interviews. And the focus on the early part of paid off with a stunning 5th place at Omloop. He got clearly better at the repeated surges, as he was able to attack away from the group of favorites in the last few kilometers. Next to the endurance, he is also has a sneaky sprint, which he was able to utilize at In Flanders Fields, where he finished 8th.

Then came the Tour of Flanders, which is the most important race in the calendar for every Flemish rider. "If you’re Flemish, then it’s really like a national holiday… everybody comes on the street. It’s one of the special days of the season for me, certainly as a Belgian rider."

And that was all the motivation Aimé needed, as he finished in a very respectable 12th place. He missed the decisive move on the Molenberg, however he never gave up and fought very hard all the way to the finish. "It was a really hard day. It’s a pity we missed the split on the Molenberg, we were just a bit too far at that moment. After that, we focused on saving what was possible. Of course, missing the top 10 is disappointing, but finishing 12th in a race like this is still a solid result. The conditions, with wind, rain and everything, made it a real Flemish classic. We showed we were good, even if not quite in the mix for the top positions today" - described the Belgian.

He ended the cobbled season with 460 UCI points, which is a lot more than what the team expected from him beforehand. His example shows that with the right mindset and a lot of dedication during the winter anyone can go from “zero to hero” in only one season’s time.

Underperformer: Biniam Girmay

One if not the biggest story of the offseason was Israel Premier Tech’s disappearance from the pro peloton due to the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The team got completely revamped, as the Spanish company owned by football icon Andrés Iniesta became the title sponsor of the team. Due to the changes regarding the team’s ownership, it was no surprise to see them being active on the transfer market too. Many riders left the team, but that opened up spaces for new arrivals. And with the new sponsor coming in, they wanted to get a rider who would become the team’s franchise rider. And they found that rider in Biniam Girmay.

With the merger between Intermarché-Wanty and Lotto, the Eritrean was keen on joining this new, ambitious project. But being the team’s franchise rider also comes with a lot of expectation. Next to being their main sprinter at the Tour, he was also supposed to be their main guy in the classics.

As a former winner of Gent-Wevelgem, he set some very ambitious goals for himself before the season: “I really love to win at the classics, and, for the moment, I only won Gent – Wevelgem so I still want to achieve more together with the team. I believe one day we can win one of the biggest races in cycling together.” So with that in mind he entered the Opening Weekend with one goal only: winning. “We have a big and clear goal with the team, especially for Sunday” - said the Belgian before the weekend.

However, he was nowhere near the front of the race on both days, finishing in 61st at Omloop and in 119th at Kuurne. It was a huge disappointment for both Bini and his team. Next up was the E3 Saxo Classic, which on paper is a much harder race than the previous too, so it was no surprise that he was invisible again.

Then came In Flanders Fields, a race which he had won before in a bunch sprint. It ended in a sprint again, but this time he couldn’t get involved due to poor positioning, finishing in 21st. Four races, four underwhelming results. People started to wonder whether Biniam was the right signing for the team, especially as others in the team like Vernon, Gilmore and Pinarello were performing week in and week out.

But at his next race he finally got a nice result, probably just in time, as he finished 4th at Dwars door Vlaanderen. Yes it wasn’t quite a victory, but it was at least something that gave us hope for the next races. “A podium would have been nice, but at least we’re back in the game,” - said Biniam. “That’s important.” However, that was his last result worth a mention, as severally underperformed again during the “Holy Week”.

Overall, it was a very bad spring for him, the team definitely expected more from the African. Will he ever win a classic again? Well, I’m sure that NSN will do everything in their power to help him get back to his 2022 shape, when he was up there every single week fighting for the win on the cobbled roads of Belgian. For now they have to put this spring behind and focus on the Tour de France, where the pressure will be sky high on Biniam, because if he doesn’t win something there, then his signing will probably be regarded as a failure by the public.

But who were your over-and underperformers? Let me know in the comments!

​Photos: SprintCyclingAgency

​Article written and produced by Ákos Derdák (https://www.instagram.com/the.baroudeur, https://x.com/thebaroudeurguy)