On 15 August 2020, two careers were written on the same Lombardia stage. One ended last June. The other starts this Saturday as the most-tipped rider on the road. The symmetry is almost too clean to be real.
Il Lombardia 2020 is the last time this race was run without Tadej Pogacar.
That day in August, the Slovenian was deep inside his Tour de France buildup and skipped the Monument. Two weeks later he would win his first yellow jersey in Paris.
The men who filled the vacuum built the next six years of cycling. One was 35. The other was 20.
Jakob Fuglsang attacked on the Civiglio and won the Monument of his career. Remco Evenepoel flew over a low stone wall on the descent of the Muro di Sormano and fell into a ravine, fracturing his pelvis.
Six years later, Fuglsang is retired. Evenepoel is the Lombardia favourite.
This is their story. And it is also the story of what Saturday is really about.
The 2020 Race That Shaped Everything
The 114th edition of Il Lombardia was 231 km, Bergamo to Como.
The route then was similar to Saturday's course, with the Ghisallo, the Sormano, the Civiglio, and the final San Fermo della Battaglia. On paper it was a classic Lombardia parcours. On the day it became something else.
Fifty kilometres from the finish, a strong group broke clear. It contained defending champion Bauke Mollema and two-time winner Vincenzo Nibali.
The attack on the Civiglio came from Fuglsang. Vlasov went with him. George Bennett closed the gap on the descent.
Three riders for the final San Fermo. Bennett attacked at the base. Fuglsang answered with a "vicious attack" that no one could match.
He soloed to victory.
Who Jakob Fuglsang Actually Was
Context matters here.
Fuglsang was 35 at the Lombardia start line. Date of birth: 22 March 1985. He had been a pro since 2008.
By 2020 he had already won the Dauphine in 2017 and 2019, plus Liege-Bastogne-Liege in 2019. He was not an obscure rider. He was a known Monument contender who had never quite got one across the line until Lombardia.
Then he won it. At 35. In the race nobody at that age is supposed to win.
Five years later, in June 2025, he retired at the end of the Giro d'Italia with his final team, Israel-Premier Tech.
The Lombardia win was the last great result of his career. He knew it would be while he was crossing the line.
What Happened to Evenepoel That Day
Twenty years old. Deceuninck-Quick-Step. The rising star of Belgian cycling, already with a Clasica San Sebastian title.
Evenepoel was in the leading group of 20 approaching the Muro di Sormano. The descent is one of the trickiest in cycling, narrow switchbacks on rough tarmac above exposed drops.
He went over a low stone wall. He fell into a ravine.
The injuries, as diagnosed at Sant'Anna Hospital in Como, were a fractured pelvis and a lung contusion. He was out of racing for nine months.
Image credit: Tim de Waele/Getty Images
The crash defined the next four years of his career. His comeback stretched into 2021. He won Liege-Bastogne-Liege for the first time in 2022, then the Vuelta a Espana the same year, then the Worlds in 2023.
By 2024 he was back at Lombardia. Finished second. In 2025, second again.
Both times, Pogacar beat him.
The Six-Year Loop That Closes Saturday
Here is the uncomfortable symmetry.
The last Lombardia without Pogacar nearly killed Evenepoel's career. The next Lombardia without Pogacar may hand him the Monument he has spent six years chasing.
Fuglsang won the 2020 edition because the course favoured a diesel climber over a punchy specialist. The 2026 course keeps the same architecture.
Selvino. Berbenno. Valpiana. Giovezana. Ghisallo. Sormano. Civiglio. The double San Fermo della Battaglia at the finish.
Lombardia 2026 is one of them. He has publicly said so.
Why Pogacar Is Not on the Start Line
The reason the field opens up is specific and unavoidable.
Five Lombardias in a row from 2021 to 2025. All five won by one rider. All five contested on routes that were, on paper, built for exactly his profile.
He is not racing this Saturday.
That is the first break in a decade of expectation. Everything downstream from it is new editorial territory.
What a Fuglsang-Style Winner Would Look Like Now
If 2020 is the historical template, the 2026 winner comes from a specific archetype.
Not the youngest rider. Not the most aerobic. The rider with the best accumulated-fatigue power at kilometre 215.
In 2020 that was a 35-year-old who had quietly been building for the race all season. His team, Astana, rode a textbook support plan with Vlasov as the launching block.
The 2026 equivalent is a rider with Monument form, a focused season aimed at this specific race, and a team willing to burn resources through the first 200 km to deliver him to Civiglio with legs.
Evenepoel fits most of that. So does Isaac del Toro, if UAE have reorganized around him. So, on a different vector, does Giulio Ciccone.
A 23-year-old solo heroic is possible but not the base case. The base case is a 25-to-32-year-old with Monument scar tissue and a team.
Where the 2020 Parallel Breaks
Two things are not the same.
The 2020 race was in August, run during the COVID-rescheduled calendar. Riders arrived there in different states of readiness than they do at an October Lombardia. Form windows and racing programs looked nothing like today's.
The 2020 field was also smaller in star power. The 2026 field, even without Pogacar, has deeper top-end talent. Paul Seixas is 18 and climbing like a WorldTour veteran. Del Toro has just set the Jebel Hafeet record. Pidcock is in resurgent form.
Lombardia 2020 was decided by one acceleration from a 35-year-old. Lombardia 2026 is more likely to split in three waves across the Civiglio and the San Fermo climbs.
What Saturday Actually Is
A race the sport has not seen in six years.
Not because the parcours is radically different. Because the man who was supposed to win it, by the implicit assumption of five straight editions, is not on the start list.
Fuglsang won 2020 and retired five years later. Evenepoel crashed into a ravine in 2020 and comes back as the favourite in 2026. In between, Pogacar won five of them.
The symmetry is the story. The race itself will decide whether the loop closes with Evenepoel finally winning a Lombardia he nearly died at, or whether a new name takes its place in the same empty chair Fuglsang filled.
Saturday morning in Bergamo. Civiglio around 15:30 CET. Finish in Como roughly 90 minutes later.
Six years of symmetry. One Saturday.
Watch it.
