Could Tadej Pogačar Be the Fittest Tour Winner in History? Here's What Science Says

Recent analysis suggests that Tadej Pogačar might be pushing the limits of human physiology.

A new study focusing on the Slovenian superstar indicates he could have the highest VO2 max ever measured among modern Tour de France champions, highlighting that his success may be as much about natural talent as it is about training.

The study, conducted by Norwegian researcher Ole Kristian Berg and published in the Journal of Science & Cycling, estimates Pogačar’s VO2 max between 91 and 96 ml/kg/min.

For context, most professional male cyclists fall in the mid-70s to high-80s, with only elite riders surpassing 90 ml/kg/min.

Legends like Chris Froome and Miguel Induráin were measured around 88, while Greg LeMond’s 93 ml/kg/min is often cited as one of the highest historically.

Pogačar’s numbers suggest he may have surpassed even that benchmark.

Berg calculated these figures using Pogačar’s performances on six major mountain stages from the 2024 and 2025 Tours.

These included climbs such as Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, Col de la Couillole, Hautacam, Peyragudes, and Mont Ventoux.

Using publicly available data on Pogačar’s body weight (66kg), height (176cm), bike weight, and climbing times, Berg estimated his critical power the maximum sustainable output over roughly 40 minutes.

By applying the standard assumption that critical power corresponds to 85–90% of maximal oxygen uptake, Berg derived the VO2 max range.

On these climbs, Pogačar maintained a consistent output of 6.4–7 watts per kilogram, with an average power around 442 watts.

His peak performance came during the Peyragudes time trial in 2025, riding at 7 w/kg (462 watts).

During the Plateau de Beille stage in 2024, after tackling four category-one climbs, he still bested Jonas Vingegaard by over a minute, with a VO2 max likely near the top end of 91–96 ml/kg/min.

The study notes that race fatigue may have slightly lowered Pogačar’s critical power compared to lab conditions, suggesting his true VO2 max could be even higher.

While wind and drafting weren’t factored into calculations, Berg considers a mid-90s VO2 max entirely reasonable.

Experts continue to marvel at Pogačar’s exceptional abilities.

Slovenian coach Tim Podlocar emphasizes his unique genetics and ability to sustain high power while recovering quickly.

UAE Team Emirates soigneur Joseba Elguezabal observed that Pogačar’s muscles recover almost instantly after intense efforts, a feat confirmed by multiple team staff.

Historically, Oskar Svendsen holds the highest recorded VO2 max at 97.5 ml/kg/min as a junior, but Pogačar’s combination of climbing power, endurance, and rapid recovery sets him apart among professional riders.

Berg concludes with optimism for future Tours, anticipating more performances that push human limits.

Pogačar’s story illustrates that top athletes combine extraordinary genetics with relentless effort, redefining what is physically possible in elite cycling.

His ability to convert oxygen into sustained power, while recovering quickly, positions him in a league very few have ever reached.

Study source: Tour de Physiology: The Exceptional Power Outputs and V̇O₂ of Climbing in the Tour de France